DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/19 11:03

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Broadly weaker grain trade at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 290 higher. The dollar 
index is 9 higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are mixed with 
crude up $0.85. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals are mixed with gold 
12.90 lower.

   CORN

   Corn is 5 to 6 cents lower at midday with trade surrendering Friday's bounce 
after rains across much of the belt, along with the start of the big crop tour. 
Weather should continue to remain a short-term non issue. Ethanol margins 
remain poor with blenders seeing the most short-term benefits with ethanol 
futures drifting lower. Basis remains mixed overall with harvest getting 
closer. Weekly export inspections remain soft at 510,334 metric tons. Weekly 
crop progress is expected to show steady conditions, and lagging maturity. On 
the September nearby chart support is likely the $3.59 low with the lower 
Bollinger Band at $3.54 below that with resistance the 10-day at $3.83, 
reflecting the break.

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 7 to 9 cents lower at midday with trade fading back to the 
lower end of the range after the weekend rains. Meal is 1.00 to 2.00 lower and 
oil is 35 to 45 points lower. Basis remains flat overall. The Brazilian ral is 
recovering off of fresh lows scored last week and the Argentina peso still at 
rock bottom prices. The weather looks to be a short-term non-issue for soybeans 
as well coming forward. The trade situation remains little changed as well. The 
weekly export inspections improved at 1.13 million metric tons. Weekly crop 
progress will likely be steady conditions with maturity not catching up much. 
September chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $8.42, with the next 
round up the 10-day $8.65.

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 2 to 5 cents lower, with Chicago trying to gain again, and 
spring wheat harvest continuing along with spillover pressure from row crops. 
The Kansas City/Chicago spread is at 78 after a high of 90 cents last week. The 
corn/HRW spread is wider, back to 27 cents. Kansas City wheat is now back to 
competitive on the world market trading at a discount to the lowest offers in 
the most recent GASC tender. Spring wheat harvest should expand with winter 
wheat just about wrapped up, with Europe continuing to move towards spring 
wheat harvest as well. Weekly export inspections were 488,905 metric tons. 
Weekly crop progress is expected to show winter wheat harvest effectively 
complete, with spring wheat past the 25% mark. The September Kansas City chart 
support is the new low at 3.80 3/4 with the first resistance the 4.00 area.

   

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


(CZ)

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